Here is the first of three predictions on the National League. Be sure to check out all of the bloggers for the United Cardinal Bloggers.

Division Champions: New York Mets 92-70

With the additions of Francisco Rodriguez to close out ballgames and former Seattle closer J.J. Putz setting up for him, the Mets finally have some stability in the backend of the bullpen. Also, gone are Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoenweis, Duaner Sanchez, and Luis Ayala. However, the Mets still need to prove they can hit when it matters. Plus Johan Santana is a beast.

Second Place: Philadelphia Phillies (Wild Card Winner) 91-71

It is hard to pick against the World Champions. However fate is against them. Since the Braves of the 1990′s, no national league team has made it to consecutive World Series. However if any team in the National League can change this, it may be this very dangerous Phillies team. They have perhaps the best infield in the National League with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins. They added one of the more consistent bats over the past few seasons in Raul Ibanez, and have a potential star in Jayson Werth. They also return a solid bullpen, anchored by closer Brad Lidge, who was the 2008 comeback player of the year and did not blow a single save over the course of the season.

Third Place: Florida Marlins 85-77

This is a young team that has a ton of talent. Their pitching staff will surprise many people this year, and has the potential to be one of the best in the game. They have arguably one of the games best player in Hanley Ramirez. Cameron Maybin should win the centerfield job and will be an exciting young player to watch.

Fourth Place: Atlanta Braves 81-81

The Braves made significant moves this off-season to upgrade their rotation. They traded for Javier Vasquez and brought in free agent Derek Lowe and Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami. However, this team lacks an ace to anchor their staff. They also have a bullpen littered with question marks and an offense that doesn’t strike much fear into anyone outside of Brian McCann, but bobby Cox always keeps them competitive.

Fifth Place: Washington Nationals   77-85

They signed slugger Adam Dunn to put in the four spot, Ryan Zimmerman is healthy this year, Josh Willingham was acquired from the Marlins, and Lastings Milledge will benefit of batting higher in the order instead of the unnatural cleanup spot. However the pitching is a complete mess, both the rotation and bullpen.

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As a proud partner in the United Cardinals Bloggers and I am writing these predictions as a collaborative effort on the American League today. Here they are, rip them to shreds!

AMERICAN LEAGUE PREDICTIONS

AL WEST

1. Los Angeles Angels: 92-70

The Angels were the winners of the AL West last year and will repeat this year in 2009.  The Angels aren’t going to win 100 games again, like they did last year, but they will break the 90-win mark.

I think the Angels wins will go down for various reasons, one, being that they lost their All-Star closer, Francisco Rodriguez, and their other star Mark Teixeira, both to New York.

The Mets and Yankees really beat the Angels up, before the season started.  Another reason is that the league has toughened up, the A’s acquired Matt Holliday and the Rangers are looking to turn their franchise around.

So, all in all, the Angels will still be the champs of the AL West, but their going to have to actually give it 200 percent to win the division, if they just loaf around, they’ll be in for a rude awakening.

2. Oakland Athletics: 84-78

The Oakland A’s acquired All-Star outfielder, Matt Holliday this off-season, but that won’t bring them a division crown.

This team is going to have to trade Holliday at the deadline, if not earlier and they just have to rebuild.

This team is just too much of a mess and I just can’t see them being successful with the team they have.

3. Texas Rangers: 82-80

The Rangers have, arguably the best offense in the majors, but their pitching is horrendous.  I’m predicting that the Rangers finish with a record slightly over .500.

They are a young team with many young pitchers, and they can bloom into a great team in the years to come.

But, if the Rangers pitchers all have decent years the Rangers won’t have to wait, they will have a big chance to make the playoffs and contend in their division.

So, the Rangers season lies in the management’s hands very heavily.  If the management makes the right moves, the Rangers are on their way to playing in late October.

4. Seattle Mariners- 71- 91

What a pathetic team. I am not even going to write about them.

AL CENTRAL

1st Place – Cleveland Indians 91-71Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee and the talented Fausto Carmona will keep Cleveland competitive in the Central. Adding former Cub Kerry Wood to the pen as the team’s closer fill’s a big void as well. If only this starting rotation still had C.C. Sabathia. The good thing about playing in the Central is that quick rebounds are possible. Detroit and Chicago are outspending the Indians, but talent-wise, Cleveland has enough to win the division, as long as they stay healthy. Grady Sizemore is one of the game’s elite lead off men and he leads the charge on this team. A now healthy Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez figure to boost the lineup.

2nd Place – Minnesota Twins 89-73
It would only be fitting that Minnesota takes home a Central division crown in its last season in the Metrodome, but they won’t. The Twins have been the class of the Central this decade, winning four division titles since 2002. They were one game away from making it five as they lost 1-0 to the Chicago White Sox in a play-in game last year. There’s nothing flashy about the Twins, they just find ways to win with solid pitching and timely hitting. This is a young, talented team with pitchers like Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker and position players like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.

3rd Place – Chicago White Sox 85-77
The bar has been raised for the White Sox this season following a division title and that likely means the Sox will come in below it. This team has performed the best when the least has been expected. In 2005, the Sox exploded to win 99 games, going on to win the World Series a year after the team won just 83. The next year they sunk to third in the division. The Sox were back on top again with an 89-win season after winning only 72 games in 2007. Not resigning Joe Crede and Orlando Cabrera along with trading pitcher Javier Vazquez figures to haunt the Sox this season. The Sox still have Carlos Quentin, Jermain Dye, and Jim Thome to smack the long ball, but I’m not sure trying to win with a younger, more athletic lineup was the call this season.

4th Place – Kansas City Royals 77-85

The Royals made it out of the AL Central basement with a 75-win season in 2008, their first season of 70 or more wins in recent memory. This team has made steady improvement over the past couple years, improving seven wins from 2006 to 2007 and six more wins from 2007 to 2008. What’s most impressive is how the Royals finished off last season, going 18-8 in September. While this young team still likely has a couple years before we can talk about it in the same breath with AL Central crown, getting out of the cellar should give Kansas City a big psychological boost. Kansas City has a chance to play .500 baseball for the second time in 15 years and that’s what it will shoot for.

5th Place – Detroit Tigers 76-86
A Tigers team designed to make a World Series run in 2008 was a huge disaster and I expect the disaster to continue. Detroit peaked with 95 wins in 2006, followed that up with an 88-win 2007, and then dropped clear back down to 74 wins to find the cellar. The downturn can be put largely on the pitching staff. After winning the pennant in 2006, the pitching staff has begun to slide. Ace Justin Verlander’s ERA jumped from 3.63 to 4.84 and Dontrelle Willis appears to be an expensive liability. Here’s the bad news; the pen appears to be in even worse shape.

AL EAST

1st Place – Boston Red Sox 97-65

The 2007 World Series champs finished just two games out of first place last season and I have them climbing back to the top in 2009. The Devil Rays took the league by storm a season ago, but it will be a different story now that they are wearing the target. Without Manny Ramirez hanging around to disrupt team chemistry, Boston’s one and only focus can be winning baseball games and that is something they will do a lot of this season. The thing that separates the Sox from the rest of the pack is its starting rotation. Josh Beckett should be completely healthy this season which means he should look a lot more like the 20-game winner we saw in 2007. Jon Lester finished last season 15-4 with a 2.82 ERA in his finals 27 starts and Daisuke Matsuzaka is now 33-15 in two seasons with the Sox. In comes Brad Penny and John Smoltz to provide Boston with two more solid options. Offensively, I can’t wait to see what Jason Bay can do in an entire season in a lineup where he is protected and Dustin Pedroia is unreal. What’s next for the 2007 ROY and 2008 MVP?

2nd Place – New York Yankees 94- 68

New York cleaned up in the offseason, landing C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira. In terms of talent the Yankees are unmatched, but chemistry has been a major issue this team the past couple seasons and that figures to continue to be a problem with more new guys stepping in. Still, missing the playoffs for the first time in 15 years gives the Yanks plenty of incentive heading in to the 2009 season. The Yanks, I’m sure, are sick of hearing about Alex Rodriguez for all the wrong reasons, but it is nothing knew and I don’t expect it to be a major distraction.

3rd Place – Tampa Bay Rays 90-72
What a ride it was for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2008, going from 66 wins and a last place finish in 2007 to 97 wins, an AL East title and an AL Pennant. I’m still not ready to jump on this bandwagon as life is going to be much tougher for the Rays now that they are wearing a target. The Rays lack the experience of the Red Sox, and you can expect the revenge factor to play a major role this season as Tampa Bay beat the Sox in seven games in the ALCS. The Rays also lack the budget of the Yankees which has the best players money can buy. You also have to worry about a little complacency after such a run from a young team. Tampa Bay will be back, but likely not this season.

4th Place – Toronto Blue Jays 80-82
The Jays finished one win shy of their 2006 total when they finished 2nd in the AL East, but it was only good for 4th last season. With the emergence of the Rays, the Jays are the odd man out. Losing A.J. Burnett to rival New York and with Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum going under the knife, the Jays’ strength has been crushed. My boy Roy Halladay still remains and gives us a reason to watch.

5th Place – Baltimore Orioles 74- 88
Life as an Oriole fan has been awful. A perennial 4th place finish slipped to dead last in 2008 and that’s where I have the O’s winding up again. Baltimore is committed to its rebuilding project and is hoping to eventually accomplish what the Rays did a season ago. It’s been 11 straight losing seasons now for the Orange Birds and that will give way to 12 in 2009. Baltimore’s rotation is paper thin and it’s too soon to bring up its prospects. Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and Adam Jones will still give the Baltimore faithful something to cheer about on occasion.

Now that’s my take on the American League, what about yours?

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Five players fight it out for 4 remaining roster spots for the Cardinals by Opening Day. Let’s take a look.

Colby Rasmus, Joe Mather, Brian Barden, Brendan Ryan and Joe Thurston are all in competition for four spots. Rasmus is an outfielder, while Barden, Ryan and Thurston are all infielders.

Rasmus: Most everyone that I speak to belives that if Colby Rasmus is making the club, he should be a starter in at leat 5 of 7 games. Is that possible with Duncan, Ankiel, Ludwick? It makes it difficult to do. Add in Mather who can play on the infield or outfield and it becomes crowded. Signs point back to Memphis.

Joe Mather: Tony likes any player that is “versatile” and can play almost anyhere. That, ladies and gentlemen, is Mather. He stays. I believe even though he has gone is an offensive tailspin, he will make the team.

Brian Barden: Closest we have to a runner. One that can pinch run and has athleticism. The infield has Schumaker, Greene and a host of others.  He stays also.

Ryan and Thurston: Both in the same boat. One of them will be the ONE. TLR has always been bothered by Brenden Ryan and his quirky behavior. Althouh Tony likes to have him as the whipping boy. I believe he GOES and Thurston stays.

UNLESS a deal is made an an outfielder goes, then this is terms for reassessment.

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Are you ready, Are you ready for this
Are you hanging on the edge of your seat
Out of the doorway the bullets rip
To the sound of the beat
Another one bites the dust
Another one bites the dust
And another one gone, and another one gone
Another one bites the dust

Chris Perez is being shut down. This news came quickly after GM Mozeliak was on Bernie’s radio show and said absolutely NOTHING. Now that is being forthright.

They say no structural damage but he can’t lift his arm to a pitching position. Not good.

Looks like a new sheriff will have to come to town and be the teams closer.

Is it Franklin? Is it Reyes? Probably a committee of the two.

Maybe we could sign Pedro to be da man. I would like to try that but the $$$ seems excessive.

Jimmy Gobble was released today and this team loves reclamation projects. Things don’t look so good at the moment.

I am ready for some “real” baseball.

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I am putting up my predictions as of this moment with the idea I can change them if any team in the NL Central makes any significant changes before the season starts.

Here we go:

1. Chicago Cubs- it pains me, but they are still the team to beat. I actually think they may have stepped backwards a bit my losing Wood, Marquis and DeRosa. The additions are not nearly as good. Gregg and Bradley, come on! Bradley is the key here. If he is not injured, keeps his mouth shut and just flat out plays, he can be very good. What are the chances of that? Wins= 92

2. St Louis Cardinals- A healthy Carpenter is paramount to success from them. Their offseason acquisitions seem to be minimal with Greene at shortstop and Reyes for the pen. The others are just meh unless they surprise us. Will Rasmus play this season? I believe he will be given the opportunity. A few newbies in the infield have me concerned a bit with Schumaker and Mather manning those grounders. Wins= 88

3. Cincinnati Reds- The most improved team and a very young one in most regards. They can go from 3rd to 5th very easily. Wins= 86

4. Houston Astros- What have they done lately for improvement? I will get back to you on that. Wins= 83

5. Milwaukee Brewers- They lost the most this year with the departure of several players like Sabathia and Sheets. The still have Fielder and Braun but this team will struggle. Wins= 78

6. Pittsburgh Pirates- These are the Pirates. Wins= 76

Got your own? Next up will be NL East.

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My take on the Reyes signing is that is a very good one. At least as far as value vs risk. I like the Reyes signing regardless of prior moves. The Cards now have 2 decent lefties in the pen

The Cards got a decent reliever and they got him cheap for not just this season but the next. Isn’t that value?

Ring is around if someone gets hurt.

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Nice work Colby Rasmus!

LaRussa was impressed. That , in itself, is a story.

For his “little things”, he pointed to one moment in yesterday’s victory against the Dominican Republic.

He said it was Colby Rasmus’ lead from first base on the second pitch of an at-bat. That changed the game.

…………………

With Schumaker up — a lefthanded hitter — and speed on base in Rasmus, the levers La Russa likes to pull all lined up, so he signalled: Hit & Run.

This is the lead that La Russa lauded this morning. Having received the sign, Rasmus takes his lead from first. The Dominican team has fixated on him, watching him for any hint that he’s going on this pitch. If he settles in a half stride further away from the bag. If his hands are fidgeting, if he’s bouncing on his feet — anything that any number of young players do once they get a sign to do something. They are reading Rasmus to see if there is a play called and what that play might mean.

According to La Russa, Rasmus did exactly what he did on the pitch before. Nothing more. Nothing less.

Team Dominicana doesn’t do a pitch out, doesn’t do anything to shoo Rasmus back to the bag and, La Russa assumes the next day, believed that Rasmus was just doing on that pitch what he had done on the previous pitch. He didn’t “do anything different,” La Russa said. Rasmus sold status quo with his lead. And then, with the pitch, he was off …

Schumaker scalded a grounder through the hole opened on the right side of the infield. Rasmus sped around second and reached third, and then scored the go-ahead run on a groundout. The Cardinals scored two runs in the inning, pulling away for good.

“He took the exact same lead, Skip finds a hole for (his base hit),” La Russa said. “Runners on first and third leads to us being two runs up, with wind blowing in and good pitching.”

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Cardinalsgm writer (find me as Tom Knuppel) is now in the 2009 Facebook. I hope to make a video blog soon on this account.

Next up is my twitter account.

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