Before each of Joel's starts, Jose Oquendo told Pineiro that he wasn't good enough to pitch for Puerto Rico to motivate him

                When asked to name the most pleasant Cardinal surprises this season, Joel Pineiro’s 2009 campaign would certainly rank near the top.  He pitched a career high 214 innings, posting a 15-12 record with a 3.49 era with an even more impressive 3.27 FIP, which normalizes defense to show just how good a pitcher’s era should be with the controllable skills (strikeouts, walks, etc) he possesses.  It was truly a dream season for Pineiro, but now he is a free agent and the Cardinals apparently only have one spot in their rotation to fill via free agency.  Should Pineiro be that guy? Let’s take a look and find out. 

                For as good as Joel Pineiro was in 2009, he was as equally bad in 2008.  In 08’ Pineiro went 7-7 with a 5.15 era and a 4.71 FIP, so although Pineiro was a little unlucky to have an era that far above his FIP, he still wasn’t a good pitcher.  Pineiro’s peripherals were not very good either, as he sported a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.12, a 1.63 ground ball to fly ball ratio, and almost 22% of the batted balls that Pineiro gave up were line drives.  For his efforts, Pineiro managed to produce 0.9 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which amounted to 3.9 million dollars in value while his actual salary was 5.5 million.  Simply put, Pineiro couldn’t strike anyone out, did not get enough ground balls, and gave up more than his fair share of line drives, so it was pretty safe to say that he wasn’t fooling many hitters.  This poor season had fans simply celebrating the fact that the Cardinals only had Pineiro on the payroll for 2009 as he was going into the final year of a 2 year 13 million dollar deal. 

                It was no shocker to fans that for the World Baseball Classic, team Puerto Rico manager and St. Louis third base coach Jose Oquendo decided to leave Pineiro out of the rotation for the WBC, which apparently angered Joel so much that he decided to stay in spring training with the Cardinals.  During his time in spring training, Pineiro bought into a suggestion from pitching coach Dave Duncan that he should abandon his approach that he had been using since he broke in with the Mariners in 2000 and switch to throwing a sinker more.  With this sinker, Joel could pound the strike zone while hitters hit ground ball after ground ball early in counts to help Pineiro get quick outs and minimize damage with runners on base by being able to induce more double plays.  It sounded like a good philosophy, so Pineiro bought into it, and the results were staggering.  As I mentioned earlier, Pineiro won 15 games with a sub 3.50 era with an FIP below 3.30.  The sinker was credited as the reason for Pineiro’s improvement, and the statistics back it up.  Pineiro went from throwing all types of fastballs 58% of the time in 2008 to throwing 71% sinkers in 2009.  Pineiro’s strike out to walk ratio climbed to 3.89, a huge improvement from the 2.31 mark he posted the year before.  Pineiro’s batted ball data also changed dramatically, as his ground ball to fly ball ratio went from 1.63 to 2.54 and his line drive percentage plummeted down 6% to 15.7%.  It all added up to a 4.8 WAR season which produced 21.5 million dollars in value to the Cardinals while his actual salary was only 7.5 million.  To summarize, Pineiro pounded the strike zone with his sinker which allowed him to get quicker outs, which resulted in a career high in innings pitched.  By throwing the sinker a large % of the time, Pineiro also showed better control because he didn’t get into deep counts and his era and FIP went down because a lot of the fly balls and line drives the year before were now turning into ground balls, which was a really good thing with Brendan Ryan playing shortstop.  So what does it all mean? 

                It’s very apparent that Pineiro made a fundamental shift in the way he goes about getting outs last season, but should the Cardinals trust this new and improved version of Joel Pineiro enough to give him a contract?  Pineiro is a type B free agent, so the Cardinals should/will offer him arbitration.  It’s also very unlikely that Pineiro accepts the arbitration offer because Pineiro is a durable starter in a free agent market that is not a very impressive group as a whole.  There is a good chance at age 31 that Pineiro gets a 2-4 year deal worth at least 8 million a year depending on how the market shapes up.  Predicting free agent contracts is a worthless exercise, so I am just focusing on the decision to give Pineiro a multi-year deal at a fair price for both sides.  Is it a good idea?  Given the Cardinals currently have 3/5 members of their rotation locked in on long term deals, it is probably best that the Cardinals stay away from signing another pitcher to multiple years for the rotation.  The Cardinals obviously aren’t the Yankees, so with a limited number of resources it makes more sense to fill the final two spots in the rotation with someone like rookie lefthander Jaime Garcia and a guy like John Smoltz on a one year deal, a theory that Mozeliak appears to share.  As good as Pineiro was in 2009, there is some regression that will likely come, as Pineiro’s home run rate, batting average against (BAA), and batting average of balls in play (BAPIP) were all awfully low even for someone who relies on the sinker like Pineiro.  It’s highly likely that St. Louis benefited from a career season from Joel, and while Cardinals fans should appreciate what he accomplished this year in St. Louis, that doesn’t mean that they should bring Pineiro back for future seasons. 

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Mark Derosa tries to look really serious in a photo taken shortly after his trade to St. Louis.

                Now that the Cardinals coaching staff has been configured for the 2010 season, it is up to John Mozeliak to decide which free agents he is going to make a hard run at first.  With such prominent figures on the 2009 Central Division champs like Matt Holliday, Mark Derosa, and John Smoltz all looking for new contracts, Mozeliak must decide if he wants to put all his efforts into signing Matt Holliday, or if he wants go a different route in his two week exclusive rights period with these players that starts after the conclusion of the World Series.  Several members of the front office, including principal owner Bill Dewitt and general manager John Mozeliak have said that the Cardinals are going to make a serious run at retaining Matt Holliday, but have also conceded that they may not be able to offer the top dollar, so the return of the star left fielder is far from a slam-dunk.

                It is this uncertainty that has many Cardinals fans and writers clamoring for the immediate re-signing of Mark Derosa.  Derosa, although he was almost exclusively a third baseman for the 2009 Cards, is very versatile, having played both outfield corners, second, and third base throughout his career.  The thinking is that by signing Mark Derosa early in free agency, he will act as sort of an insurance policy for left field in case Holliday is not brought back, and that Derosa could also start at third base again if Holliday does come back.  Those seem like good reasons to sign Mark now before the Holliday negotiations really begin, but does it really make sense?

                It’s been reported that the Cardinals have around $30 million this offseason to spend in free agency if they wish.  The Cardinals seem to be comfortable with David Freese as the starter at third base and Mozeliak has said that one of Mitchell Boggs/Jaime Garcia will probably have the 5^th starter spot next year.  This means that the Cards have to find a left-fielder, backup catcher, 4^th starter, and possibly a reserve outfielder via trade or free agency.  The farm system’s cupboard was raided through several trades this year, and the Cardinals don’t have a lot of areas of depth like they did going into the year in positions like right-handed relief and third base, so it appears that most of the needs will be addressed through free agency.  Assuming the Cardinals lock up Mark Derosa before trying to sign Holliday, anywhere from 5.5 to 8.5 million is what the Cardinals can expect Derosa to be paid in a fair offer that pays him like the 1.5-2 WAR player he’s likely to be.  I’ve already discussed the projected value of Derosa in another post, so I won’t get into that here.  So if the Cardinals have 30 million to spend, John Mozeliak must plan on Derosa taking up at least 20% of that figure. 

                If The Cardinals do end up signing Holliday, Derosa would shift to third base(likely hurting the value the club will get out of him) and severely handicapping the club’s ability to address other areas of need.  They could go into 2010 with someone like Matt Pagnozzi as the backup catcher and guys like John Jay and Allen Craig as the main reserve outfielders, but I wouldn’t think that would be plan A this offseason.  I also discussed how David Freese will likely offer very similar production to Mark Derosa next season, so the club would basically be spending an extra 5-8 million on a player who they already have on their roster next year that is making the league minimum.  It is also unknown whether the Cardinals could afford to bring in another starting pitcher if they sign Derosa and Holliday, so the club might have to rely on Boggs and Garcia both starting next year, which would leave the Cardinals very thin on starting pitching depth in case someone got injured or was ineffective.

                What if the Cardinals fail to bring Holliday back?  Do they really benefit from signing Derosa now?  Mark Derosa is a fine player, and if Holliday isn’t retained he would likely be the everyday left-fielder.  Derosa would be a valuable player out in left, but he isn’t irreplaceable.  As I discussed in another post, there are plenty of options in the outfield for John Mozeliak to consider, so even if the Cardinals lost Holliday and then Derosa to free agency, there are other outfielders that can offer similar production to what Derosa does.  This negates the notion that Derosa is an insurance policy and needs to be signed right now as Jeff Gordon writes.  Derosa is a good player, and he might be re-signed, but there isn’t a huge benefit in locking him up before free agency.  The risk of Mozeliak having his hands tied if Holliday and Derosa are both brought back outweighs any benefit of signing Derosa immediately as an insurance policy.  Mozeliak just needs to worry about bringing back Holliday, and as far as Derosa goes my only bit of advice to Mo’ is to just be patient.

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After an eight year break, TLR and Big Mac are together in the dugout again

                Unless you were living under a rock these past couple of days, you know that Tony La Russa is back for one more year and that Hal McRae is out as hitting instructor, with former redbird Mark McGwire taking over the position.  The press conference formally announcing these two moves was Monday morning, and although McGwire wasn’t even in attendance, he was the focal point of the interviews with Dewitt, Mozeliak, and TLR.  The questions were a bit of positive and negative, with most of the positive obviously being about the Card’s skipper returning for a 15^th season.

                Personally, I am very happy about La Russa’s return.  Although it can be frustrating to watch TLR on a day to day basis when he does things that don’t seem to make sense, what TLR is able to do as a whole is outstanding.  In short, TLR on a micro level can drive fan’s crazy, but on a macro level I think it’s pretty safe to say he’s one of, if not the best manager the Cardinals have ever had. 

                It’s pretty remarkable that the return of the winningest manager in team history wasn’t the biggest news of the press conference, but that was exactly the case when the rumor that Mark McGwire was going to be the new hitting coach was confirmed by TLR and other members of the front office.  Obviously this is a very controversial hire, and I feel the best way for the Cardinals to minimize the media circus that will surround Mark is for him to just address what happened in the past, apologize, and move forward.  We live in a pretty forgiving society, for proof just examine the two Yankee heroes this postseason, Andy Pettitte and Alex Rodriguez.  I think if Mark just explains what he did and sincerely apologizes, the media, the fans, and he himself can all move forward in a more positive direction. 

                I have no idea how much a hitting coach can actually influence performance, all I hope is that Big Mac will come in and help to change the philosophy of the “grip and rip” approach of this year’s team.  The 2009 Cardinals were aggressive to a fault at the plate, swinging at 26.8% of pitches outside the strike zone, the 6^th worst percentage in all of baseball.  For comparison’s sake, the Red Sox and Yankees are baseball’s most disciplined teams, with both swinging at just over 22.5%.  Swinging at pitches out of the zone doesn’t allow the offense to work counts, which means that the hitter is more likely to swing at a pitcher’s pitch instead of getting one he can handle.  It also means that opposing team’s starting pitcher doesn’t have to throw as many pitches, so he can go deeper into the game and the Cardinals don’t get to hit against a team’s middle relievers, the weak spot on most clubs.  This was painfully apparent in the playoffs as the Cardinals chased ball after ball out of the strike zone while more disciplined teams like the Phillies and Dodgers were able to work counts into their favor, and then get a pitch they could handle and do something with it.  The Cardinals will be much better off if McGwire and others can help change the philosophy to be more patient, and to really focus on getting the best pitch they can and then hopefully do something with it.  Big Mac seems like a perfect guy to come in and teach this approach, as he had a .394 obp for his career and walked in almost 18% of his pa’s when anything over 10% is considered good.  Mark also seems to have a good relationship with several current players, with the most notable being Matt Holliday and Skip Schumaker.  A lot is made both good and bad about Holliday listening to Big Mac’s advice about ditching his signature high leg kick early in the year and then struggling, before going back to the leg kick and subsequently taking off again.  I personally believe that it has little bearing good or bad on the Holliday negotiations, and that people who think Holliday won’t sign with St. Louis because McGwire gave Holliday advice that didn’t work are overreacting . I also believe  people who think Holliday respects McGwire enough to change his stance even though he was already a .300 plus hitter  means Holliday will sign to just be with McGwire are doing some wishful thinking as well. 

                In conclusion, it’s great to have La Russa back.  He seems to have tremendous respect from Pujols and other players, and it would be hard to imagine Cardinal baseball without #10 in the dugout.  I am also on board with the Mark McGwire hiring, on the condition that he deals with his personal business before the year so he doesn’t become a distraction.  It’s tough to quantify how well a coach does, so the only thing to base an opinion on is from the players that play for them, and both Tony and Mark seem to have ringing endorsements.  McGwire isn’t going to make Brendan Ryan hit .350, or suddenly teach Colby how to hit 40 homers, but what Big Mac can do is help the Cardinals change their philosophy at the plate and hopefully turn the hitters into a more disciplined bunch.   The Cardinals have completed the makeup of their 2010 coaching staff, and now the ball goes into General Manager John Mozeliak’s court as he trys to give his manager and his new hitting coach some more talent to work with.

*Be sure to check out the UCB Radio’s interview with Cards Team President Bill Dewitt III.  Fantastic job guys!

-Agree/Disagree? Leave a comment and I will be happy to discuss!

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Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu would represent danger in the second spot, something that TLR always wants

                When Matt Holliday was traded to the Cardinals, a lot was made about Albert Pujols finally having someone to offer him some protection in the lineup.  With Matt Holliday batting cleanup behind Albert, the thinking was that since Holliday is such a good hitter, Albert wouldn’t get pitched around as much and would get more pitches to hit in certain situations. Although SABR analysis has shown that there is little evidence that supports the idea of protection, Pujols did see a steep decline in the amount of intentional walks a he received after the Holliday trade than he did before it.  Even though Pujols’s numbers actually got worse after the trade for Holliday, it was likely because of the bone spurs in his elbow.  There is no doubt Holliday improved the offense, as the offense scored more runs after the trade even though players like Pujols, Derosa, and Ludwick all sputtered down the stretch.  Now that Holliday could be gone, however, the protection issue surrounding Pujols is starting to crop up again. 

                As I briefly stated in a previous post, there are two ways to protect Albert to some degree and ensure that he sees a fair amount of pitches to hit.  One way is to do what the Cardinals did in 2009 by putting a feared hitter after Pujols so teams will be more weary of walking Albert because of the damage the hitter behind him could potentially do.  The other idea is to put players with high obp’s in front of Pujols so there are always runners on base in front of #5.  If there are runners on base a lot in front of Pujols, even if there isn’t a hitter of Holiday’s caliber behind Albert, he will still get pitched to because there would be no where to put him.  Ideally the Cardinals would be able to employ both types of protection, but financial restrictions make it unlikely.  It should also be noted that Albert Pujols is one of if not the best hitter on the planet, and that no matter how much protection there is teams will always pitch to Albert as little as possible.  So what should John Mozeliak do?

                The odds of Mozeliak being able to retain Holliday are up in the air, and if Holliday walks and Bay is unavailable I believe the front office should focus on a two hole hitter that does a good job of getting on base in front of Albert.  For most of the season, either Colby Rasmus or Brendan Ryan batted second, and both struggled in the spot before Albert.  Colby had a .307 obp in his rookie campaign, while Ryan managed a .340 obp.  Colby simply didn’t get on base enough as a two hole hitter and should probably hit down in the lineup to better utilize his power and base stealing ability.  Brendan Ryan had a more respectable obp, but with just a .400 slg % someone with a little bit more pop belongs in the second spot.

                So who could be a catalyst in front of Albert that the Cardinals could sign via free agency this offseason?  Assuming David Freese is goes into the season as the starting third baseman, Chone Figgins isn’t an option.  So what outfielders could fit this bill?  Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu are the two players that would make the most sense.  Although Abreu (36) and Damon (37) will be getting up there in age, both are a virtual lock to appear in 130-140 games next season.  Abreu put up a .293/.390/.435 line for a .825 ops to go along with 96 runs and 103 RBI’s.  Damon had a similar season, posting a .282/.365/.489 ops to go along with 107 runs and 87 RBI’s. Damon posted a higher ops, but it largely had to do with the launching pad of Yankee Stadium inflating his slg%.  Both Damon(.376) and Abreu(.367) were nearly identical hitters judging by their Weighted On Base Average (WOBA), which includes park factors so hitters can be more easily compared on their true talent levels.  Damon and Abreu are also very similar unfortunately with the gloves, even though Damon is a left fielder and Abreu is a right fielder.  Damon was -11.2 runs below average per UZR, and Abreu was -9.9 runs below average in right field.  Both clearly aren’t great outfielders, but with the Cardinals ground ball pitching staff it might help hide Damon in left or Abreu in left or right, depending on where the Cardinals wanted Ludwick to play.  Overall Damon was worth 2.8 Wins Above Replacement, which would be worth 12.7 million on the free agent market.  Abreu was worth 2.6 WAR and produced 11.8 million dollars of value to the Angels in 2009.  Both Damon and Abreu are probably looking at a 2 year deal at this point in their respective careers, and something in the neighborhood of 2 years and 20 million would be a fair offer for each. 

                To sum it up, the Cardinals face a difficult offseason as they try to retool and reload for 2010.  Pujols must be protected, and whether that protection comes from behind Albert like Cardinals fans saw in 2009 with Matt Holliday or in front of Pujols with someone like Damon or Abreu getting on base in second spot, getting El Hombre as many opportunities to swing the bat as possible should be the top priority.  Adding Damon or Abreu wouldn’t be as sexy as adding a big bat like Holliday or Bay, but it would be effective and besides, the Cardinals might save enough coin to take a hard run at a certain Cuban lefthander.

Agree? Disagree? Voice your opinion in the comments section below and I will be happy to explain any part of this post!

*Also note that from this point forward, I will stick to this Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday post schedule, especially while the hot stove is yet to be lit.

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David Freese adds a solid glove and a steady bat to the Cardinals

                When the Cardinals traded Jim Edmonds to the Padres in exchange for David Freese, the deal resulted in mixed feelings for Cardinals fans everywhere.  Jimmy Baseball had been a part of the core of some of the most successful teams in Cardinals history, and to see him go for a prospect who at the age of 24 still hadn’t played in AA ball resulted in some criticism of newly hired general manager John Mozeliak.  Mozeliak and other members of the front office assured that Freese was a solid prospect and not just part of a salary dump.  Freese was told that he would have the opportunity to win the third base job at AAA the following spring, which was two levels above what he had played the previous year.

                The nearby Lafayette High School grad impressed in his first year in the organization, not only just winning the third base job at AAA Memphis but also showing a live bat and a plus glove.  Freese put up a .306/.361/.550 line for a .910 ops to go along with 26 home runs, 83 runs, and 91 RBI’s. The following spring, Freese appeared to be on the inside track for the big league job when Troy Glaus had shoulder surgery.  Freese, however, suffered an ankle injury in a car accident that left him hobbled.  He had to have surgery to repair the ankle, and as soon as he healed he was sent to AAA Memphis to rehab.  He had a fine half season Memphis, putting up a .300/.353/.484 line. Freese also added 10 homers, 34 runs and 37 RBI’s.  David was also a September call up with the Cardinals, where he hit .323 over 34 plate appearances, which appeared to have put Freese in good position going into 2010.

                With Mozeliak stating that free agent Mark Derosa is far from a guarantee to come back and that Freese will have the opportunity to start coming out of spring training, it appears that the roadblocks have finally cleared for Freese.  Scott Rolen, Troy Glaus, Mark Derosa, and Brett Wallace have all appeared ahead of Freese on the depth chart at one point or another, and all have been shipped out through trade or appear to be leaving via free agency, leaving Freese as the likely starter for 2010.  So what do the Cardinals have in Freese?  Using his 2008 AAA stats* and finding his Major League Equivalents(MLE’s) , Freese’s 2008 projects to a .267/.313/.456 line for a .769 ops with 20 home runs, 66 runs, and 72 RBI’s.  That’s slightly below league average with the bat for third base, but slightly above league average offensively overall.  Freese also fills a need by having a good reputation for hitting lefties, a season long problem in St. Louis.  In the minors Freese struck out in around 25% of his p.a.’s while walking in a healthy 10%, so while his obp was an acceptable .353 in AAA in 2008 his MLE obp was .313, so Freese doesn’t exactly have very good patience at the plate and should probably hit down in the lineup.  A lot of Freese’s value lies in his leather at third base.  Freese is considered a good defender, and combining his offensive and defensive output into  WAR(Wins Above Replacement) puts him at a 2 win player, which definitely carries some value considering will be getting paid the league minimum.  A 2 WAR player on the free agent market can reasonably expect to get paid 8.8 million, so for the Cardinals to get that kind of value for league minimum would definitely help balance the budget as they try to improve on other areas. 

                In conclusion, David Freese isn’t a star in the making like Colby Rasmus, but is a respectable player that will basically be free next season.  Considering that Cardinal third baseman in 2009 were put up a combined .652 ops and were -4.5 runs below average in the field, it’s pretty safe to say that Freese will represent an improvement at the hot corner in 2010.  As the Cardinals move forward and try to do bigger things like lock up Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, having solid but not spectacular players like Freese will be a necessity to help keep the payroll down. 

*Since 2008 was Freese’s only full season in AAA and he was basically the same player in a half season of AAA in 2009, his 08’ stats were used for his MLE’s.

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Placido Polanco is excited about becoming a free agent

               Throughout the past several days, as bloggers and fans everywhere begin to contemplate how to make the Cardinals a better team in 2010, Placido Polanco is a name being tossed around.  When people talk about Polanco, they note that he makes contact, would be an ideal #2 hitter in front of Pujols, is very good defensively, and could fit in at 2b or 3b depending on who else the Cardinals would acquire.  There is also always someone that points out that Pujols and Polanco are good friends and that by signing Polanco, it would also help to appease Albert in case Holliday isn’t brought back.  Those seem like legit enough claims and reasons to make Placido Polanco a Cardinal (again) right?

                Upon examining the numbers, some of the statements made about Polanco turn out to be true, while some either aren’t measurable or are just not correct.  One statement that does pass the credibility test is that Placido makes a lot of contact.  Polanco has never struck out 50 times in a season, and last year he made contact with 93% of his swings while only striking out in 7.4% of his plate appearances.  That’s some serious hand-eye coordination that Polanco can flash, and something that old-school baseball purists can definitely appreciate.  Unfortunately this kind of bat control also makes people believe that Polanco would be a good hitter to put in front of Albert.  The number one job of the second place hitter in front of Pujols is to get on base, something that Polanco struggled with last season.  In fact, Polanco’s obp fell for the third straight season in 2009, going from a very good .388 in 07’ to .350 in 08’ before falling to .331 this past season.  Second basemen don’t tend to age well, and at 34 years old it’s fairly likely that Placido is entering the decline phase of his career.  Even if Polanco were to replicate his 2009 in a 2 to 3 year deal, a .331 obp is not something the Cardinals need to add anywhere in the lineup, let alone bat in front of Pujols.  Polanco also hits for little power, making his ops of .727 in 09’ very pedestrian.   Brendon Ryan had.740 ops in 2009, and yet for some reason some people think that basically adding another Brendon Ryan to the lineup is going to help the Cardinal offense score more runs next season. *

                Defensively, Polanco is a top-notch 2b.  His UZR says that he saved over 12 runs at second last year, which is very good.  I do not think, however, that the Cardinals are ready to give up on Skip Schumaker at second base and move him back to the outfield.  Skip was moved to 2b because his offense played much better at second than in left, and considering that Skip vastly improved his defense as the season went on, it doesn’t make sense to move Skip back to the outfield.  What about putting Polanco at 3b?  Polanco hasn’t played third since 2005, but he has been a solid 7.8 runs above average over 322 games at the hot corner in his career.  Since Polanco is a better defensive 2b than 3b, his value would take a hit if he were signed to play 3b for the Cardinals, making him unlikely to match the 3.2 WAR and 14.4 million dollar in value he produced for the Tigers in 2009.  Basically, if the Cardinals were going to sign Polanco and maximize his value, the answer would not be to play him at 3b. 

                To wrap this up, Placido Polanco is a fine player, but he just isn’t as good of fit to the Cardinals as he appears to be at first glance.  He is a solid contact hitter, but he carries a low obp, and the Cardinals cannot afford to add another low obp bat to the lineup.  He is a good defensive 2b, but the Cardinals are set with Schumaker at 2b going forward.  He could play 3b, but the Cardinals wouldn’t be maximizing Polanco’s value and with guys like Chone Figgins and possibly even Adrian Beltre hitting free agency, there are better options at the hot corner if the Cardinals aren’t comfortable with David Freese.  As far as Polanco being a close friend of Pujols, he very well might be, but I don’t think personnel decisions should be made on whether a player is buddies with Albert.  Pujols should probably have a say in hiring or firing a coach, but when it comes to signing a free agent Mozeliak just needs to worry about making the team better, not appeasing Albert.  Besides, as long as the front office signs the right players and the team wins, who’s to say Albert won’t make new friends?

*Assuming Joe Thurston isn’t the starting 3b.

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               Ever since the trades of Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen that ended the MV3 era in St. Louis, the Cardinals and Tony La Russa in particular have stressed the importance of protection around Albert Pujols.  Protecting Pujols is all about having a legitimate big bat behind Albert to make the pitcher think twice about pitching around Pujols in key situations (It could also be making sure there are runners on base in front of him so there is no place to put him, but that’s a topic for a different day).  La Russa lobbied publically that Matt Holliday would be the ideal person to protect Pujols, and he finally got his wish when John Mozeliak pulled off the biggest mid-season trade since Larry Walker in St. Louis.  The Cardinals raced to the division title, got swept in the playoffs, and now that the offseason is here the front office faces a familiar dilemma now that Holliday is a free agent.  He isn’t the only big bat left fielder that could protect Albert, however.

                Former Pirate Jason Bay’s contract has also expired after a season and a half with the Red Sox.  Bay is coming off a monster year in Boston offensively, posting a .267/.384/.537 line for a .921 ops with 36 homers, 103 runs, 118 RBI’s,  while walking in an exceptional 15% of his plate appearances.  It was the fourth time in the past five seasons Bay has hit over 30 homers, and he has proven himself to be a consistent power threat in the middle of any lineup.  There is some bad that comes with all that good, however, as Bay has some difficulties making contact, striking out 162 times(30.5% of his p.a.’s) and playing some very bad defense.  Bay was always considered an average Left Fielder until a knee injury in 2007 that seems to have hampered his range.  Bay has been worth -11.5, -18.4, and -13.9 runs below average in the field the past three seasons, and at age 31 he doesn’t figure to improve on that as time goes on.  Using Wins Above Replacement, or WAR, Bay was a 3.4 win player last year, good to be valued at just over 15 million on the free agent market.  As the probable top target after Holliday on the free agent market, Bay figures to be paid pretty handsomely for his services, and something like a 3 to 4 year deal worth 15 million annually wouldn’t be out of the question. 

                One guy who 15 million annually definitely will not be out of the question to is Matt Holliday.  Holliday is a Boras client entering the free agent market at the right time, as the Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals, and Mets are just some of the teams that could be in the bidding for his services.  It’s no wonder Holliday is considered the gem of the 2010 free agent class, as he is coming off a .313/.394/.515 slash line to go along with an 11% walk rate, 24 homers, 109 RBI’s, and 94 runs while overcoming a very slow start with Oakland before getting hot right before his trade to St. Louis and helping to ignite the Cardinals to the postseason.  Holliday is the rarest kind of hitter, as he carries a high average and blends it with impressive power.  There are several things that separate Holliday from Jason Bay, one of them being able to make contact as Holliday strikes out far less, whiffing in just over 17% in his p.a.’s and 101 times on the season.  Holliday is also a fine left fielder, despite his crucial error in game 2 of the NLDS against Los Angeles.  His UZR this past season was 5.3 runs above average, and as a year younger than Bay with no real injury history to speak of figures to stay at his current level for several more seasons.  Holliday’s WAR the past couple season was 5.6, making him valued at 25.4 million on the free agent market.  The reason for the massive difference in Holliday and Bays WAR is Holliday’s defense, as there is an almost 20 run gap between the two.  Holliday figures to get around 18 million annually on the free agent market, perhaps higher if Boras can find someone desperate enough.  The reason Bay’s worth on the free agent market will likely be close to what he is actually worth in terms of value and Holliday’s likely won’t be is because defense doesn’t get paid market value in terms of WAR like offense does. 

                So what should the Cardinals do?  Assuming Bay is in line for something like a 4/60 million dollar contract going forward and figures to stay at his 3 to 3.5 win level, Bay figures to produce around the 60 million dollars he would be getting paid, making him have zero surplus value(value in terms of WAR minus actual salary).  Having zero surplus value isn’t a bad thing, but a club can only afford to pay market value to so many players because of the higher cost that those players carry.  Holliday is probably in line for a 5-6 year deal worth around 18 million annually, making a 5 year 90 million dollar deal in the neighborhood of what he could expect assuming the bidding doesn’t get out of control.  Holliday at 18 or even 20 million still wouldn’t  match his value of 25 to 30 million he would be at assuming he stays at a 5.5 to 6 WAR level over the life of the deal, meaning Holliday would be a good value to whomever he signs with and will be producing some nice surplus value.  If I was John Mozeliak and I had to choose between giving Bay 15 million and Holliday 18-20 million, I would choose Holliday because even though Holliday costs more in terms of actual payroll dollars, the surplus value that the Holliday contract would be producing would be 5 to 10 million more of surplus value than the Bay one per season.  On the free agent market, 5-10 million would buy a 1.5-2 win player that would be worth and cost 4.5 to 9 million, and if Holliday is making just 3 to 5 million more than Bay per season, the money saved on Bay could only buy a player that could match the Holliday surplus value in terms of WAR, and that probably isn’t real reasonable to expect.  Bottom line is that if the Cardinals are going to try and protect Pujols by signing a big bat for Left Field, they should go for the bigger fish in Holliday or just allocate those resources to another area.

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Chone Figgins would give the lineup a boost in the speed and obp departments.

As long as we are talking hypothetical situations, assuming Holliday walks, what I wouldn’t mind seeing done is for the Cardinals to sign Chone Figgins for 3b and Derosa for the outfield.

-Offense-Figgins walked in over 14% of his plate appearances this year and had a .395 obp and is a switch hitter. Derosa we all know suffered from a wrist injury this season and managed a .752 ops.

-Defense-using UZR(Ultimate Zone Rating), Figgins saved an outstanding 14.5 runs at third base, meaning it would be like having another Brendan Ryan in the infield. Derosa meanwhile, would also benefit from a move to the outfield, specifically RF where he has saved 20 runs over 160 games in his career. Ludwick is a good LF and RF so the Cardinals could move Ludwick to LF or put Derosa in Left, where he has been average in his career but in much smaller sample size.

-Conclusion-In terms of Wins Above Replacement, or WAR, Figgins was a 5.9 win player last year, or .3 wins better than Holliday, but we all know Holliday will be the one pulling in a 5-6 year deal worth around 85-105 million, not Figgins. Compared to Holliday, Figgins could be an undervalued bargain at something like a 3-4 year deal worth 10-12 million annually. Derosa could be a 2-3 win player when his defense gets a boost from the outfield and his wrist recovers.

Bottom line is the Cardinals would get a leadoff or a two-hole hitter in Figgins to combine with Schumaker to have more runners on base when Albert hits, and also have a very solid LF in Derosa. Although this approach wouldn’t be as sexy as adding Holliday, the combined salaries of Figgins and Derosa would be about equal to Holliday and Freese and likely to outproduce or equal them in terms of WAR while taking less years of commitment to save money in the future for a Pujols extension.

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Dollars and cents. Any discussion about the off-season as to begin with the finances. Although we are not privy to Bill DeWitt and his ideas about how much payroll to have, we can speculate on it.

• Opening Day payrolls for 25-man roster
  (salaries plus pro-rated signing bonuses):
• • 2009: $ 88,528,409
    
  • 2008: $ 99,624,449
    
  • 2007: $ 90,286,823
    
  • 2006: $ 88,891,371
  • 2005: $ 92,106,833
  • 2004: $ 83,228,333
  • 2003: $ 83,786,666
  • 2002: $ 74,660,875
  • 2001: $ 78,538,333
  • 2000: $ 63,900,00

  Our payroll for next year is a bit over $55 million for those with multi-year(9 players) deals. Boston is paying about $9 mil on the Lugo contract. Now to reach at least to the $88 million we had on Opening Day we can add about $33 million more.

Before we talk about signing free agents, let examine those that we have to pay.

Schumaker made $430,000

LaRue took in $950,000

Ryan earned $403,000

Everyone else is close to or making the minimum of $400,000.

Let’s attempt the MATH. $56,530,000 wrapped up in 12 players but we have to say we have 13 because of the Lugo contract.

In an attempt to be fair let’s put the opening day salary back to the 2008 range of $100 million for the remaining 12 players.

So now for free agents. Later we can discuss the merits of whether it is a good thing or bad thing to sign these guys but let’s say that the Cards are signing Holliday, DeRosa and Smoltz plus 9 more. If those 9 players make minimum salary plus a modest raise to $450,000 each (and I doubt that happens) we have added a tad over $4 million to the salary schedule. We have $40,000,000 to use!

DeRosa had a 3 yr $13 mil contract. Smoltz was garnering $5.5 mil and Matt Holliday was raking in $11.5 million. The 2009 version of these players had combined salaries of a bit over $20 mil.

Do we have the money to sign them?

Don’t you believe we will have to sign some lesser free agents before the season begins?

I say we need $31,000,000 to sign these 3 players.

It is do-able.

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Now what? Look at the mess that has been created. Let me say this right here in the first paragraph. Matt Holliday is the right person to bat behind Albert Pujols. But can we keep him? Did we give up too much during this season is a very clear effort to win it now.

The Cardinals gave up five prospects to acquire DeRosa and Holliday. Those are very good established players that we got. But they both coukd walk away and leave us high and dry. Those five prospects were exactly that, “prospects”. None of them had even a year of major league service time.

We got Smoltz as a signee.

When we acquired Khalil Greene we gave up two right-handed relievers. We acquired Julio Lugo for Chris Duncan and Lugo is the only player we got this is under contract for next year.

So what does management think?

“There are no regrets,” Mozeliak said while leaving the ballpark Sunday, the
day after his club was eliminated in the National League Division Series. “We
understood the risk we took. If you don’t win your division, you don’t get to
the postseason. When you look back, in hindsight, you understand that the
talent we gave up is real and rich. We stood by those moves from Day One and
thankfully they made for a very exciting season.

“Those moves propelled us to the postseason. Now, we didn’t succeed in the
postseason, so we need to take a look at that. I think it was a talented team
that ended up hitting a tough patch and didn’t rebound.”

We gave up a lot of talent to get to the postseason. The next team has to be built to go deeper into the playoffs.

The offseason is here. Some call it the Hot Stove League. Here at CGM we will explore what is prudent for the Cardinals to do before April 5th opener in Cincinnati.

Feel free to enter in with your opinions.

footnote: Don’t forget to put your name on the Sign Pujols for Life petition at http://MVPujols.com

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