Don't question this man.

-A couple of things-1. I am no longer going by the secret_sauce tag, im now using my twitter name-ryan_jones29     2. I wrote this piece the day after Carp’s last start but had trouble putting it into the system

There’s been a lot made of Chris Carpenter’s 2010 season thus far. His five home runs allowed in his first two starts (would have been 6 if not for Colby Rasmus) made Cardinal fans question Carpenter’s health. Recently, a comment from Houston Astro Lance Berkman, who said Carpenter’s velocity is down several mph, has only brought more attention to this “issue.” Ken Rosenthal even suggested in an ITD Morning After interview on May 18 that Carpenter might be in the beginning of a slight decline. So should Cardinal fans be concerned about their oft-injured ace?

In a word, no.

First off all, Carpenter’s velocity is down a little, but the amount it is down is exaggerated. Yes Carpenter averaged 93 mph on all fastballs in 2009, which means 2010’s 91.4 mph average velocity is down, but when you look at the past several years, it doesn’t exactly scream Red Flag! To show what I mean, here is Carpenter’s average velocity for the following years-I took out his injury riddled 07’ and 08’ numbers

04’-90.6 mph

05’-91.3 mph

06’-91.4 mph

09’-93.0 mph

10’-91.4 mph

So Carpenter’s 2010 velocity is down, but it is still exactly in line with his career averages. It is hard telling why Carpenter threw so hard in 09’, maybe it was all the rehab he did the previous two years, maybe he had extra adrenaline being in a pennant race after two straight years off, we’ll never know. The important thing is that Carpenter’s velocity isn’t down at a career low, and who knows, maybe as the weather gets warmer and the year progresses his velocity may increase a bit. So going forward, Cards fans can breath easy about Carp’s “diminished velocity.”

Going forward with Carpenter, it is fair to expect more ace-like performances from the right-hander. He’s off to a good start in 2010, with a 5-1 record, 2.80 ERA, 3.70 FIP and an expected FIP of 3.33, compared to last years 3.38 mark. Remember FIP takes a teams defense out of the equation and comes up with an ERA like number based on the amount of things that a pitcher  controls-Walks, Strikeouts, Homeruns.  The reason Carpenter’s FIP is higher now is because of all the homers he gave up early this season, but his expected FIP is a better measure of what to expect going forward.  The difference between this year and last is his home run rate. Last year Carpenter gave up homeruns on only 4.6% of his fly balls, which is very low. This year that number is at 14%. For his career, it is at 10.9%. Over time I would expect to see that number closer to his career average, but for his overall numbers to stay around the same still. His batting average on balls in play is still a little low, so going forward Carpenter might allow a few more runs on hits and a few less on homers. Overall Carpenter is still an ace pitcher, and appears to be in great shape going forward. Rest easy, Card fans.

-All statistics from fangraphs.com and despite Bernie’s column in the post dispatch, I didn’t get the idea to write this from that. Honestly I began this piece at 8 am, and didn’t see Bernie’s until I checked the site at 1.

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It's shaping up to be a wonderful summer in the Lou'.

It  has been awhile eh?  I apologize, as I have been pressed for time recently again.  In the future, for a better way to see when new content is added to the site, I suggest you follow me personally on twitter <twitter.com/ryan_jones29> or Tom (he owns this site, I just write on it).  His account is <twitter.com/CardinalsGM>.  Whenever a new post is added to the site a link will be tweeted, so you will know exactly when a post is written.  Both of us also like to tweet about the Cards during the games, so you can either just read what we have to say or tell us that we are crazy!

Anyways, back to the actual Cardinals.  Overall I would say it has been a good start to the year.  The Cards’ 20-14 start gives them a .588 winning percentage, which would put them in the low to mid 90′s in wins by the end of the year, which is where many people expected them to be going into the year.  Using data from baseball prospectus and fangraphs gives us a good idea of where the Cardinals stand in relation to their division counterparts

OFFENSE

The club has yet to gel together offensively.  Their 4.41 runs per game average is a tad underwhelming, as that figure is good for 4th in the central divison and 11th in the N.L.   Their team .338 on base % is actually tied for 6th in the league, but their .405 slugging % puts them at 10th in the N.L.  There is no way a team with Pujols, Holliday, Rasmus, Ludwick, and even Freese should be that low in terms of slugging %, but with guys like Schumaker and Ryan stuggling to do anything offensively and with Pujols and Holliday yet to really catch fire that’s where things stand.  The Cardinals are also one of the least disciplined teams in the major leagues in terms of % of swings at pitches thrown outside of the strike zone.  Cardinal batters are swinging at 27.7% of such pitches, which ranks them 10th in the N.L.  In order to improve offensively, hitters need to quit swinging at so many bad pitches.  It sounds like an obvious statement and anyone who watches the games can see that, but it is worthwhile to point out when the stats back it up. 

PITCHING

This is an area where the Cardinals have dominated throughout 2010.  Their 3.41 runs allowed per game is good for 3rd in the N.L. and 1st in the divison.  No one else in the divison is within a run of the Cards, which is fantastic.  The Cards have the 2nd best k/bb ratio in the N.L., and carry a sub 3.5 FIP as a team, which again is execellent.  Another interesting note is that Cardinal curve balls are a full 10 runs better (17.6 vrs. 7.5) than any other team in the major leagues!   Make no mistake about it-with guys like Wainwright and Carpenter, the Cardinals OWN the curveball. 

DEFENSE

Despite the last two nights, the Cardinals have also played some solid defense to help aid the pitching staff this season.  They are converting 71% of balls put into play into outs, which leads the divison and is good enough for 3rd in the N.L.  Their 10.7 UZR, which means how many runs the defense has saved compared to how many runs an average defense would have saved, as a team is also good enough for 3rd in the N.L. and first in the divison.  It’s clear that the Cardinals help an already stout pitching staff shave off runs by playing execellent defense. 

OVERALL

Despite the recent hot stretch by the Reds, the Cardinals still appear to be in a good place in the divison.  Their 4.41 runs scored per game and 3.41 runs allowed per game is good enough for 1st in the divison and 4th in the league.  In fact, no other team in the divison has a positive run differential like the Cardinals.  In short, if a team allows more runs than it scores, in the long run they aren’t likely to keep up with a team who does the opposite.  This is the uphill scenario that the rest of the divison faces when trying to take down the Cardinals in 2010.  Barring injury, continue to look for good things and enjoy the games Cards fans!

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Several things….

David Freese has been a pleasant surprise. I ragged on him opening week and he has been very good with the glove and bat. Hopefully, he can sustain respectability.

Jaime Garcia is another surprise. This guy is for real.

McGwire effect- Not there. We have gone away from the home run and now can score with other hits.

Pujols- He is not leading the team in several categories….. yet. He will.

Rasmus- except for his inability to throw runners out he seems to be ready to be the regular centerfielder.

Molina- clutch hitter. Don’t tempt him.

Franklin- We always seem to worry and he has done the job so far.

Any thing else?

Good month of April.

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