Getting to Know Allen Craig
Allen Craig's productive bat has got him on the brink of the Major Leagues.
Yesterday the Cardinals announced their Minor League player of the year with 3b/1b/lf Allen Craig taking home the honors. It wasn’t a shock to see Craig take home the award, as his bat has produced at every level he has played. Craig’s award has Cardinals fans everywhere asking what kind of player Craig really is, and it seems two sides have developed in stark contrast to each other. On one side, there is a pocket of believers in Craig who are wildly optimistic, believing that his bat will produce at the major league level enough that the Cardinals should give Craig the starting left-field job in 2010 and not mess with negotiating with Matt Holliday. On the other hand, there is also a large group of fans who see another John Gall when they look at Craig, meaning they think he is the classic “AAAA” player, which is a player that puts up strong numbers in AAA but just is not good enough to get over the hump and become a productive major leaguer. So which side is correct? What do the Cardinals have in Allen Craig?
In order to project what Craig can do in 2010, let’s review what got him knocking on the major league’s door. Allen Craig was drafted in the 8th round of the 2006 amateur draft out of Cal-Berkeley. A shortstop in college, he was moved to the hot corner upon being drafted where he stayed at as he moved up through the minor leagues. With David Freese and Brett Wallace being ahead in the Cardinals depth chart at third at different times, the organization saw a need for Craig to become more versatile if they were going to get his bat in the lineup as he neared the big leagues, so Craig has recently began to play left-field as well. Since David Freese is still with the organization and is the likely opening day starter, if Craig is going to make the team his role will be as a left-fielder and backup third-basemen. Craig’s defense ranges from poor to average, so almost all of Craig’s value lies in his bat. In any level Craig has managed to play over 100 games (A+, AA, AAA), he has managed to hit at least 20 home runs. Since his 2009 AAA stats are the most relevant as it pertains to projecting to his major league performance, let’s delve into them. Craig put up a .322/.374/.547 slash line good for a .921 on-base plus slugging, which for a comparison looks like a typical year from Matt Holliday (I am not suggesting Craig = Holliday, AAA stats do not equal major league stats, I am just showing how good of a season Craig had in AAA). Craig also hit 26 home runs, scored 78 runs, and drove in another 83. His other meaningful statistics included 95 strikeouts compared with only 37 walks. Craig does not appear to have very strong plate discipline, as his 7.3% walk rate and 20% strikeout rate combines for a .39 bb/k ratio, which is not very good. So overall, Craig has flashed a skillset that includes poor to average defense, good power, and a decent ability to get on base though it is tied very closely to his batting average. An on-base percentage that is mostly influenced by batting average tends not to translate very well as a player moves up through the majors, so what exactly do the Cardinals have in Craig?
Using his 2009 AAA stats, Craig’s numbers would translate into a .281/.327/.455 slash line good for a .782 ops, which was basically what Ryan Ludwick produced in 2009*. Craig is also projected to hit 20 homers, score over 60 runs, and drive in around 65. Those are solid numbers, but no one is going to confuse Craig with Matt Holliday. Overall, those offensive statistics combined with Craig’s defense would peg him at around 1 to 1.5 Wins Above Replacement, which would produce anywhere from 4.4 to 6.6 million dollars in value depending upon Craig’s defense being poor or average and playing time. Considering Craig would be getting the major league minimum, he would produce some nice value for St. Louis, but it would be a far cry from the 5-6 WAR that Matt Holliday will likely produce next year.
In conclusion, Allen Craig has accomplished everything he can at the minor league level. His skills are as ready for the Major Leagues as they likely ever will be, so he does deserve a shot on the roster next season. Allen Craig is a solid player, but he is probably better off in a reserve/spot starter role for next season, a situation where he could be quite valuable. It doesn’t appear that Craig falls in either of the two camps that Cardinals fans seem to think he is in, but instead fits in the middle. Overall Cardinal fans need to hope that Allen Craig makes the roster for 2010 as a reserve, not as a starter that gets 500 at-bats in left field.
*Note: Craig is projected to produce something similar to Ryan Ludwick’s 2009 .775 ops, and the gap between Ludwick’s 97 rbi’s next year and Craig’s projected 65 is insignificant and has to do with the fact that Ludwick was hitting behind Pujols and most of the year. Hitting behind Pujols or Holliday wasn’t taken into consideration when the projection for Craig was done.
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What to Expect from David Freese?
David Freese adds a solid glove and a steady bat to the Cardinals
When the Cardinals traded Jim Edmonds to the Padres in exchange for David Freese, the deal resulted in mixed feelings for Cardinals fans everywhere. Jimmy Baseball had been a part of the core of some of the most successful teams in Cardinals history, and to see him go for a prospect who at the age of 24 still hadn’t played in AA ball resulted in some criticism of newly hired general manager John Mozeliak. Mozeliak and other members of the front office assured that Freese was a solid prospect and not just part of a salary dump. Freese was told that he would have the opportunity to win the third base job at AAA the following spring, which was two levels above what he had played the previous year.
The nearby Lafayette High School grad impressed in his first year in the organization, not only just winning the third base job at AAA Memphis but also showing a live bat and a plus glove. Freese put up a .306/.361/.550 line for a .910 ops to go along with 26 home runs, 83 runs, and 91 RBI’s. The following spring, Freese appeared to be on the inside track for the big league job when Troy Glaus had shoulder surgery. Freese, however, suffered an ankle injury in a car accident that left him hobbled. He had to have surgery to repair the ankle, and as soon as he healed he was sent to AAA Memphis to rehab. He had a fine half season Memphis, putting up a .300/.353/.484 line. Freese also added 10 homers, 34 runs and 37 RBI’s. David was also a September call up with the Cardinals, where he hit .323 over 34 plate appearances, which appeared to have put Freese in good position going into 2010.
With Mozeliak stating that free agent Mark Derosa is far from a guarantee to come back and that Freese will have the opportunity to start coming out of spring training, it appears that the roadblocks have finally cleared for Freese. Scott Rolen, Troy Glaus, Mark Derosa, and Brett Wallace have all appeared ahead of Freese on the depth chart at one point or another, and all have been shipped out through trade or appear to be leaving via free agency, leaving Freese as the likely starter for 2010. So what do the Cardinals have in Freese? Using his 2008 AAA stats* and finding his Major League Equivalents(MLE’s) , Freese’s 2008 projects to a .267/.313/.456 line for a .769 ops with 20 home runs, 66 runs, and 72 RBI’s. That’s slightly below league average with the bat for third base, but slightly above league average offensively overall. Freese also fills a need by having a good reputation for hitting lefties, a season long problem in St. Louis. In the minors Freese struck out in around 25% of his p.a.’s while walking in a healthy 10%, so while his obp was an acceptable .353 in AAA in 2008 his MLE obp was .313, so Freese doesn’t exactly have very good patience at the plate and should probably hit down in the lineup. A lot of Freese’s value lies in his leather at third base. Freese is considered a good defender, and combining his offensive and defensive output into WAR(Wins Above Replacement) puts him at a 2 win player, which definitely carries some value considering will be getting paid the league minimum. A 2 WAR player on the free agent market can reasonably expect to get paid 8.8 million, so for the Cardinals to get that kind of value for league minimum would definitely help balance the budget as they try to improve on other areas.
In conclusion, David Freese isn’t a star in the making like Colby Rasmus, but is a respectable player that will basically be free next season. Considering that Cardinal third baseman in 2009 were put up a combined .652 ops and were -4.5 runs below average in the field, it’s pretty safe to say that Freese will represent an improvement at the hot corner in 2010. As the Cardinals move forward and try to do bigger things like lock up Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, having solid but not spectacular players like Freese will be a necessity to help keep the payroll down.
*Since 2008 was Freese’s only full season in AAA and he was basically the same player in a half season of AAA in 2009, his 08’ stats were used for his MLE’s.
2007 Top Prospects
2007 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects
- Colby Rasmus, OF,
- Jaime Garcia, LHP,
- Jon Jay, OF,
- Adam Ottavino, RHP,
- Bryan Anderson, C,
- Chris Perez, RHP,
- Cody Haerther, OF,
- Blake Hawksworth, RHP,
- Tyler Greene, SS
- Mark McCormick, RHP,
- Chris Narveson, LHP,
- Daryl Jones, OF, C+
- Matt Scherer, RHP,
- Brad Furnish, LHP
- Jon Edwards, OF,
- Blake King, RHP,
- Nick Stavinoha, OF
- Mark Hamilton, 1B,
- Mark Worrell, RHP,
- Eddie Degerman, RHP,
- Nathan Southard, OF
