Well the GM Meetings have come and gone without much noise, as the Cardinals did not make any transactions. This is not unexpected however, as traditionally the GM Meetings are a place to lay groundwork for future deals, to get a sense of what teams are looking for, and also is an opportunity to get and early gauge on how the free agent market will play out. There were also some interesting tidbits about possible plans that John Mozeliak has this off-season, most of which came from St. Louis Post Dispatch writer Joe “El Diablo” Strauss (who really does a fantastic job of gathering info from sources inside the Cardinal organization. If you want legitimate rumors, read his stuff!).

                The big question on everyone’s mind is of course about whether Matt Holliday is coming back. He is the top free agent on the market, and with an agent like Scott Boras, this will be a tough sign for Mozeliak. Boras has said there won’t be any “Home-Town Discount” for the Cardinals if they want to sign Holliday, but that isn’t a shock to the Cards, who weren’t counting on one anyway. They reportedly would like to sign Holliday for $17 million a year, which wouldn’t be considered a discount of any kind. Both Mozeliak and Boras have said that the Cardinals haven’t made an offer to Holliday yet, which is a smart move on the Mozeliak’s part. Holliday is going to the open market, so there isn’t a point of putting an offer on the table yet that has almost zero chance of getting accepted. The plan is to let Holliday test the market, then when the Cardinals feel like they have a pretty good sense of where the market is, give Boras and Holliday a fair offer, and make it final. Mozeliak is being very smart by not engaging in a bidding war with Scott Boras, as many general managers in the past have. The Cardinals might not sign Holliday in the end, but they also aren’t going to get themselves into a franchise crippling contract either. I applaud Mozeliak for staying tough and playing hardball with Boras, as that’s not something a lot of other gm’s have been able to do.

                With Mozeliak’s acknowledgment that Holliday might not come back, the Cardinals are engaging in their parallel tracks plan and considering the other options for left-field and other parts on the roster. Mo’ has said that if Holliday does sign elsewhere, that the Cardinals aren’t going to be able to replace what Holliday brings in another left-field signing, which is obviously true. Holliday is the best free agent available, so the Cardinals will look to supplement their roster in other ways, which according to Joe Strauss could include beefing up the rotation, taking a look at the third base market, and adding a set-up reliever that could occasionally spell a tired Ryan Franklin in the closer’s role. As for left, Strauss says that the Cardinals likely won’t be involved in the bidding for Jason Bay’s services, as some in the organization feel that Bay is too much of a defensive liability. This is exactly what I said in a previous article, and I still feel that the Cardinals should either sign Holliday or go in a different direction that doesn’t include signing Bay (although I fully expect Bay to be back in Boston next season). Last Saturday’s Free Agent Profile Xavier Nady is also a consideration, and while Nady isn’t a star, he would be a low-cost alternative for left which would prevent the Cardinals from starting two rookies at third and in left with David Freese and Allen Craig. Luckily the Cardinals aren’t doing Jeff Gorden’s suggestion and signing Mark Derosa right now as an insurance policy either, an idea that I also dismissed in a previous article. Strauss also says that the Cardinals could be interested in adding to their starting rotation, which I think is a very good idea. The rotation depth is pretty thin, and a Cardinal rotation with Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, and Garcia next season carries a pretty large injury risk. Strauss points out that the Cardinals aren’t interested in the market’s top starter in John Lackey, which is understandable. Lackey reportedly is using A.J. Burnett’s 5 year $82.5 million dollar deal signed last off-season as the starting point, and with the Cardinals already having 3/5ths of their starting rotation signed long term, a shorter term deal for a starting pitcher would probably be best. There also doesn’t appear to be much interest in retaining Joel Pineiro, rumored to have a 3 year and $30 million dollar price tag. For my take on why the Cardinals shouldn’t resign Joel, check back to this article. Finally, Strauss reports that he isn’t aware of any interest in free agent third-basemen Chone Figgins, who I think would be a good fit (here’s the link to that article). That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Cardinals aren’t interested in Figgins, but with the Holliday situation in limbo there is only so much Mozeliak can do at this point.

                Overall I am very happy with John Mozeliak’s plan this off-season. He is very interested in signing Matt Holliday, but isn’t going to get into a bidding war and let Boras leave him paralyzed this off-season. He will instead use his parallel tracks plan, which includes spreading the dollars that would have gone to Holliday around to various parts of the roster. The way I see it, the Cardinals will be a good team if Holliday is brought back, and they will also put a competitive roster on the field if Holliday isn’t. This off-season is going to be a wild ride Cardinal fans, so let’s just sit back and watch it unfold.

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