Felipe Lopez is part of a possible plan B for the Cardinals.

                It’s been an interesting week in Cardinal Nation, as John Mozeliak announced on the Bernie Show that the club did make a formal offer to Scott Boras for Matt Holliday before the Winter Meetings closed on Thursday. Mozeliak stated yesterday that the Cardinals should know something within the next 48 hours on Matt, and Joe Strauss states the club might not know something until early next week. Making the offer came after months of speculation about what Holliday’s market would be and posturing by Scott Boras. Mozeliak in his radio interview yesterday stated that he doesn’t feel like another club is currently bidding on Holliday, but things could always change very quickly, especially if Jason Bay signs. Not many details are known about the offer to Holliday, but Strauss did say a club source told him that the average annual value of the deal is under $18 million per season. Strauss says it’s significant that the deal isn’t for $18 million annually, because Holliday already rejected a deal that would have paid him that from the Rockies before last off-season. What isn’t said in the Strauss article was that the offer from the Rockies was only for four years and that he was two years away from free agency at the time, and Scott Boras almost always has his clients test the waters of free agency. It’s been rumored that the Cardinals would like to lock Holliday up with a 6 year deal worth $96 million, which comes out to $16 million per season. There is a big difference in offering a Scott Boras client 4 years and $72 million two years away from free agency and offering a 6 year deal when Holliday is a free agent in a market that isn’t as robust as Mr. Boras would have hoped. If the Cardinals did offer Holliday 6 years and $96 million, I don’t expect Holliday to take it. Any notions of a “home-town discount” have been squashed by Boras, who appears to be waiting on Jason Bay to sign with someone so he can hopefully drum up more interest in Holliday. I am happy the Cardinals made an offer, because it does show Boras and Holliday they are serious in their pursuit. If the Cardinals ultimately end up signing Matt they will likely have to up their offer some, but they at least are talking dollars with Boras instead of bantering through the media like much of early last week.

                Since Mozeliak has stated that he will know where the Cardinals stand by sometime next week, Cardinal fans should also be aware of what a potential plan B could look like for the Redbirds. Once again Joe Strauss provides some insight, stating that the Cardinals would have interest in bringing back Mark Derosa and signing free agent Felipe Lopez, who batted .385 for the Cardinals down the stretch in 2008. Lopez and Derosa likely wouldn’t improve the team as much as Holliday would, but they would be solid additions. In this scenario, Derosa would likely be the everyday left fielder, and Lopez would become the club’s third basemen. I have already stated that a healthy Mark Derosa could be worth 2.5-3 Wins Above Replacement out in left, and Lopez is coming off of a spectacular 4.6 WAR season as the primary second basemen for Arizona and Milwaukee. Lopez’s improvement over previous seasons came from having a 7.6 UZR in the field and having one of his finest offensive campaigns of his career. Lopez had a .310 average to go along with a .383 on-base-percentage and a .427 slugging percentage. Although Lopez hit more line drives and ground balls and decreased the amount of fly balls he has typically hit, he had a Batting Average of Balls in Play that was nearly 40 points above his career average, so some regression on offensive should be expected in 2010. Defensively Lopez has been slightly above average in 90 games at third base in his career, so if the Cardinals did sign the 29 year old they could probably expect to see something close to a 3 WAR season from him. Signing Lopez might only be a 1 WAR improvement over someone like David Freese who plays for the minimum, but as long as the club could sign Lopez to a 1-2 year deal I think it would be a good idea. With the Cardinals needing offense badly, it wouldn’t hurt to have a versatile switch-hitter like Lopez around for the right price.

                This next week figures to be a very pivotal one of the Cardinals, as they will know if they are in the Holliday hunt or not. Everything else this off-season is dictated upon whether #15 comes back, but if not the club is prepared to explore other options. I hope Holliday does re-sign, but if not the Cardinals have the backup plans in place to help them stay competitive in 2010.

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