NL Central projections

• Posted by motle on March 6th, 2008 filed in MLB Banter

 Today is the last of the projections by the United Cardinal Bloggers. Be sure to check out their links along the sidebar.

National League Central

1. Chicago Cubs Lou Piniella
2008 Picks: 84 wins
The faces of the team: Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly.

Looking at them: The Cubs have only 1 goal, until it’s accomplished. Waiting til next year no longer applies. But winning the division isn’t enough. Ever since missing out (let there be no doubt that the whole downfall started because of Steve Bartman- (hahaha) on the World Series in 2003, that’s the Cubs only goal– getting there, and winning it.
Overall: The Cubs are hoping for addition by subtraction. OF Jacque Jones, C Jason Kendall, and SP Mark Prior are gone. The sole replacement comes from Japan, OF Kosuke Fukudome– a career .300 hitting power hitter that turns 31 in April. But looking this team over, sure it’s competitive– any team with Alfonso Soriano can’t help but be. However, even though the Cubs bought their way back into competing last year, there are a lot of things that would need to come together for this team to get to the World Series. Winning the division is a tough enough battle.

 2. Milwaukee Brewers Ned Yost
2008 Picks: 82 wins
The faces of the team: SP Ben Sheets, SP Yovani Gallardo, 1B Prince Fielder, 2B Rickie Weeks, OF Bill Hall, 3B Ryan Braun.
Looking at them: Can new catcher Jason Kendall make the difference that can pull this pitching staff together. The Brewers arms have the potential to be one of the best staffs in baseball if they could all just put in good years at the same time. Both RP Eric Gagne and RP Derrick Turnbow have shown all of baseball what they are capable of. But heading into the season it’s better to fear the worst and wish to trade both for 1 more stable, reliable arm. For a good year in Milwaukee, competition will have to turn out to be the best medicine.Overall: Despite what seemed like a quantum leap in performance last season, the Brewers finished just 2 games over .500. The key to success this year will be improved pitching. The offense is similar to the Phillies with lots of good bats, including 1B Prince Fielder (50 HR’s), 3B Ryan Braun (34 HR’s). And OF Corey Hart and 2B Rickie Weeks should both be good for 20/20 this year.   3.

Cincinnati Reds Dusty Baker
2008 Picks: 81 wins
The faces of the team: Aaron Harang, Adam Dunn, Francisco Cordero, Brandon Phillips, Ken Griffey Jr.Looking at them: The Reds have a bunch of talent they can use right through the batting order: SS Alex Gonzalez, OF Jay Bruce, and 1B Joey Votto. None of them are directly bumped out of the line-up because Ken Griffey Jr is there. But could the team use Griffey best by trading him away for something (anything) that could plug more important holes on the team (such as SP #3, 4, or 5).
Overall: The Reds have 1 winning season this decade (2000). And unless they can find some pitching to go along with their ace SP Aaron Harang and their innings hog SP Bronson Arroyo, they probably won’t get it done this year. Homer Bailey was a bit too inconsistent last September. But with a slew of strong arms in the bullpen, all this team needs to do every day is find a way to the 8th inning.

4. St. Louis Cardinals Tony La Russa
2008 Picks: 80 wins
The faces of the team: 1B Albert Pujols, SP Adam Wainright, SP Chris Carpenter (out until July), RP Jason Isringhausen.

Looking at them: Health is the key factor here. The Cards need to watch the health of a slew of key superstars: SP Chris Carpenter, SP Mark Mulder, 3B Troy Glaus, and OF Chris Duncan. Without Carpenter until, most likely, at least July (12 months after his Tommy John surgery) the situation looks bleak.
Overall: The St. Louis franchise expects to win (6 playoff appearances in last 8 years), even last year, despite just 78 wins the Cards finished only 7 games back. Yet, now, on one glance the Cards are starting to look like just a 1-man team. Granted if it’s just 1-man Albert Pujols is as good as you could get. But 1-man teams don’t win much in any sport, especially baseball. Will need folks like OF Chris Duncan to really step up, and for Troy Glaus to knock out 30 dings.

5. Houston Astros Cecil Cooper
2008 Picks: 79 wins
The faces of the team: SP Roy Oswalt, 2B Kaz Matsui, 1B Lance Berkman, SS Miguel Tejada, RP Jose Valverde.

Looking at them: SP Brandon Backe needs to continue his remarkable comeback from Tommy John elbow surgery by pitching like he did last September. And either SP Wandy Rodriguez or SP Woody Williams (heck, both) need to reverse the losing seasons and notch more wins than defeats. In the batting order, the questions are whether acquired SS Miguel Tejada can bounce out of his (no more steroids?) slump; and, whether new leadoff hitter OF Michael Bourn can jump start the offense.
Overall: The Astros led the league in off-season changes. A lot of it centered around just getting rid of the RP Brad Lidge — new RP Jose Valverde (who pitched lights out relief for the D-Backs last year, will be counted on as the closer. Kaz Matsui steps in to replace retired 2B Craig Biggio.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates John Russell
2008 Picks: 73 wins
The faces of the team: Freddy Sanchez, Tom Gorzelanny.Looking at them: Like some other franchises (Tampa comes to mind), there doesn’t really have to be all that much go right. The Pirates haven’t won 80 games since 1992 Winning anything around that amount of games will be a big enough accomplishment.?

Overall: The new manager, John Russell, was coaching the Phillies Triple-A farm team last year. The Pirates send RP Salomon Torres away. The SP is still stacked with reliable innings: Gorzelanny, Snell, Morris, Maholm, and Duke are reliable, if for nothing else, racking up innings. That type of stability will allow management to focus on fixing other areas of the team.