Despite all of the controversy surrounding the Cy-Young award voting, I am going to shift gears and talk about the other important event that happened Thursday, which was the official beginning of free agency. Now that teams can actually talk contracts with players, things figure to pick up steam in the next couple of weeks. John Mozeliak joined Bernie Miklasz’s radio show this week, and offered some insight into what his plan might be this off-season. Obviously plan A is to sign Matt Holliday, but that’s an issue I’ve debated enough already, so I’ll focus on what Mozeliak has said he might consider should Holliday walk.

                Mo’ made a comment that besides looking for a veteran presence at either third-base or left-field, he would probably shift his focus on starting pitching. I am very glad that Mozeliak isn’t comfortable going into the season with both David Freese and Allen Craig as projected starters. A lineup carrying two rookies with plate discipline that isn’t the best is not a good idea, so acquiring a player who has an established track record makes sense. I am also very glad to see Mozeliak say that starting pitching would be the priority, as the starting rotation carries some significant injury risk.

 

The Current Rotation:

1. Carpenter-I don’t need to go into detail to describe that Chris is an injury risk. He has said himself many times that his nerve condition could come back at any time, making him a perennial candidate to miss some time on the disabled list.

2. Wainwright-Adam has missed some time in 2008 with a ruptured pulley in his finger, but has stayed healthy otherwise. I will state however, that Wainwright did rank 6^th in Baseball Prospectus’ Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) scale, and put a lot of mileage on his arm in his 233 inning campaign.

3. Kyle Lohse-Lohse had an injury-riddled season in 2009, only throwing 117.2 innings on the year. He suffered through a variety of injuries, including a right knee strain, various forearm ailments resulting from a hit-by-pitch, and a strained groin late in the year. Lohse’s .7 mph loss in velocity on his fastball from the year before and his 3% drop in the amount of strikes thrown can probably be attributed to his various injuries, but hopefully he can come into the spring healthy and be the pitcher he was in 2008.

4. Jaime Garcia-Garcia, a left-hander, will most likely be the official #5 starter when the season starts, but as of right now I have him 4^th . There’s a lot to like about Garcia, as he uses an upper 80′s to low 90′s fastball along with an over the top curve and change to generate ground balls. Garcia’s ground ball % has hovered in the mid 50′s to lower 60′s in the minors, which should mesh well with Dave Duncan’s philosophy. There is also some caution with Garcia, as he is is coming back from Tommy John surgery. Teams like to limit the amount of innings their young pitchers throw, and with Garcia pitching in his first full season since before his surgery it’s pretty optimistic and probably unrealistic to project more than 160-180 innings from him. If Garcia could give the Cardinals that many innings from the back of the rotation, I am sure the Cardinals would take it.

                As you can see, the front 4 in the rotation has the potential to be very good, but health is the key variable. If someone were to get hurt, depth is also a serious issue. With Kyle McClellan, Mitchell Boggs, and Blake Hawksworth all likely to be relievers, Guys like Mike Parisi and P. J. Walters would be the next to step in, which is a cause for concern. This is why I feel the rotation depth is a serious issue and needs to be addressed whether Matt Holliday is signed or not. So what free agents could John Mozeliak consider?

                I have mentioned before that with Carpenter, Wainwright, and Lohse signed long-term, the Cardinals aren’t in a position to make another large multi-year commitment to a pitcher, which is what Mozeliak has said on numerous occasions. That can make things tricky in the free agent market, but luckily this year there should be plenty of options. First let me clarify that when I say that the Cardinals should stay away from large multi-year commitments, I am talking about pitchers who will probably command large money for 3-5 years, which would mean guys like John Lackey, Randy Wolf, and possibly Joel Pineiro. This year’s free agent class is filled with pitchers who are coming off of injuries and are looking to sign with a club to re-up their stock for the future, so the contracts of what they are looking for and what John Mozeliak is wanting to give are a good match. Some of these names include: Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden, Brett Myers, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Ben Sheets, and John Smoltz. If healthy, each of these pitchers could be a nice value on a 1-2 year deal, but all have had their share of injuries in the past. That being said, if Mozeliak signs one of these types of pitchers he should also acquire a swing-man who could fill in the rotation or bullpen. Signing a talented but oft-injured pitcher and pairing him with a capable swing-man could be a very good scenario and provide a lot of value to the club. For example:

Sign Rich Harden

-say he pitches 150 innings over 25 starts, which is pretty close to what he has averaged the past two seasons. His projected ERA and FIP (Fielding Indepedent Pitching-measures things like walks and strikeouts to predict what a pitcher’s ERA would be if defense for every pitcher was the exact same)  next season are 3.33 and 3.67, respectively.

Sign an inexpensive pitcher like a non-tendered free agent-Sergio Mitre(?)

-Mitre is a definite non-tender candidate for the Yankees, and would be a good example of a swing-man Mozeliak could look at to pair with Harden in a rotation spot next year. If Harden makes 25 starts, Mitre would probably get around 7 starts and likely throw around 40 innings. His projected ERA is 5.00, but his projected FIP is just 4.39, so on a good defensive team like the Cardinals it would be reasonable to expect an ERA of around 4.50.

Harden/Mitre

                Altogether, a Harden/Mitre combination would make around 32 starts and throw around 190 innings with a 3.58 ERA and a 3.82 FIP, which would be fantastic production from the 4^th spot in the rotation. Add in the fact that the contracts for each of these pitchers would both be for only one or two years and you can see how this would be an attractive avenue for John Mozeliak to consider. The Cardinals would likely have one the best rotations in baseball and not tie themselves down with another long-term commitment while giving guys like Lance Lynn another year to develop in the minor leagues. It would be a win for all the parties involved, and is something I hope John Mozeliak considers doing this off-season, no matter if Holliday signs or not.

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