Does PECOTA Say the Cardinals are Over-Valuing Their Players?

There is outrage among the Cardinal fans, media and bloggers about a simple mathematical formula that came out called PECOTA. What is it?

PECOTA, an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance.

Sounds tame enough, doesn’t it? It came out and in its results it has the 2017 version of the St. Louis Cardinals winning 76 games. That is under .500 and they are expected to tie with the Milwaukee Brewers in the third/fourth spot. The Cubs and Pirates are ahead of them.

Here is a previous article from ESPN as to why you should hate PECOTA. But what usually happens is this formula is loved by those that the projections went high for and hated by the teams an fans that were projected low. It’s kind of human nature.

Let’s look at the Cardinals projections in just a minute but let me ask you a question that may rankle your feathers. Looking at the club for 2017, is there really anything that gives you hope? Player-wise, who has really done anything in their major leage life that would be considered anything but ordinary?

I think we have Molina, Wainwright and maybe Carpenter to fit that bill but beyond that we are hanging our hats on a whole bunch of players have very good season that have never done so yet. Now it can be done but the stretch is long and wide.

If you look at the Cardinals position by position they are really down the pipe in how good their players are to others. They have no star power and didn’t do much to make thngs better. See my previous article: “Of Course We are Not Going to Catch the Cubs in Just One Year”. They have a long road ahead.

Now Viva El Birdos is a quality website. They have some very good writers and they were not happy about the Cardinals being projected to win 76 games. Check out their article HERE. Got to agree a bit they are likely better than 76 games but let’s not lose site of the fact that the Cardinals are just better than mediocre and must make a huge leap to contend. As we look aroung the field we are hoping for better years from Grichuk and Piscotty, Diaz and Wong, Peralta, Rosenthal, Lynn, Leake, Wainwright and more and more.

The Cardinals have too many question marks going into 2017. I am giving them about 84-86  wins. For the record 84 is not 76.




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